A quick review of BYD Auto, focussing on EVs, using a number of frameworks.
Planet-saving mushrooms, baby stoats, and the London Hammercock line.
Introduction Customer Wants Product Manager Role No standard background Types of product manager: Technical, Strategic, Growth Owns Product Requirements Document, roadmap, team communications, budget Intersection of Customer (what do they want?) + Technology (is it technically viable?) + Business (is it commercially viable?) Support Design, Development, Marketing (Commercial) Starts at Opportunities and moves clockwise
Product Development Lifecycle Find and Plan: What’s the problem? Inputs (current and future): customers, company expertise, competition Design: How to solve it?
Battery recycling, UK tax, and Shakespeare is in the Bible.
Why carbon capture?The UK Government suddenly seems a fan of carbon capture - primarily, it seems, as an excuse to keep using carbon-generating fuels (i.e. oil and gas). This is not good.
However, carbon capture isn’t inherently bad. Atmospheric carbon has been growing for decades, due to the aforementioned oil and gas, and is continuing to do so. We’ve already passed the “oh shit” point, arguably several times. Carbon capture gives us a way to reduce atmospheric carbon levels and reduce the impacts of climate change.
UK inventions, bomb bees, and living materials.
Ideas spotting an opportunity (e.g. a gap in the market) experiencing a problem and looking for a solution for it (e.g. an invention) being able to do something that others can’t (e.g. using a talent) being prepared to do something others don’t want to or can’t do (e.g. cleaning) having something that others might need or want (e.g. investing in plant or machinery for hire). Sources of innovation Internal An unexpected happening A need for improvement in a proces An incongruous happening Changes in the indsutry, its structure of the market External Changes in population demographics Changes in society, in perception, mood, or meaning New types of knowledge The bright idea past and present work and experience hobbies and leisure interests qualifications and studies new markets/uses for existing products solving a persistent problem research and development (R&D) patents, licences and research institutes invention opportunities from new technologies opportunities from economic/market changes changes in consumer behaviour complaints and irritations expressed by potential customers changes in rules and regulations imitating an idea from a different locality imitating an idea from a different industry improving an existing product films, TV and radio books, magazines and the press trade shows, exhibitions and conferences business and social networks family and friends.
Psychological truths, you’re a robot, and one of the strongest men who ever lived.
General notes Business vs strategyBusiness model: a description of how a company generates profit
Versus strategy: a business model can be used for competitive analysis, portfolio analysis (corporate strategy), business analysis
Business modelsOdyssey 3.14’s business model components
value proposition (what, for who, price) value architecture (how - value chain, resources, competencies) profit equation (revenues, costs) Business model canvas overlap
customer segments, customer relationships, value proposition = value proposition key partners, key activities, key resources, channels = value architecture revenue stream, cost structure = profit equation InnovationWhat: Product, process, managerial, business model
Altman on success, Musk on entertainment, and liver babies.
Balance Sheetaka Statement of Financial Position
Current = <1 year
Assets and liabilities
Deferred taxes: timing difference between accounting income and taxable income → can be asset and/or liability Goodwill: e.g. brand, customers, premium paid on acquisition Intangible: e.g. trademark, patent, copyright Contingencies: e.g. lawsuit with expected future payout e.g. 12 month subscription for £100 → both cash and unearned revenue +£100, each month unearned -£10, revenue +£10
Emerging technologies, material requirements, and F1 funnies.
The examples and spreadsheets included in the course are super useful! All also available here: https://learn.corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/templates/
General Corporate FinanceAsset valuation technique (based on replacement cost, liquidation value) isn’t used much so not in this course
Enterprise value (assets) = equity value (market cap = shares * price) + net debt (debt - cash)
Capital structure = debt to equity ratio
Payment order: vendors/employees (COGS) → debt holders (interest) → government (tax) → shareholders (net earnings)
A CO2-eating car, mineral and water scarcity, and life’s dark truths
Buy side: institutions/investments Sell side: investment banks Corporations: exchange bonds/shares for capital Secondary market
Fund managers buy/sell at stock exchange through investment banks Capital InvestmentCreates economic benefit greater than one year
CalculationsNPV = FV/(1+r)^n
Note: Excel =NPV is different from manual calculation → “Excel NPV formula assumes that the first time period is 1 and not 0. So, if your first cash flow occurs at the beginning of the first period (i.
UK risk register, top performing sectors, greenhushing, and relationship success.
One of my acquaintances has a private jet and generously offers “a lift” to those in need. He provided lifts to a family whose young son needed specialist medical attention in the US on several occasions. This boy had never travelled by plane before. In a way, he was “born into” an elite worldview of transport.
Thankfully, months later, he recovered, but an amusing phenomenon unravelled. When he embarked on his first-ever family holiday abroad, he went to the airport as before, but to a different departure gate.
Psychological traps, the pathologisation pandemic, and South Korean POWs.
Financial models should: Be simple Focus on key cash flow drivers Convey assumptions and conclusions Help evaluate risks through: Sensitivity analysis Break-even analysis Scenario analysis Types of models ComparisonDeterministic (known inputs, precise outputs) vs stochastic (probability-based, Monte Carlo simulations; more complex)
Three Statement Model DCF Model Buyout Model Valuation from model Present value of discounted free cash flow or multiples lnvestment decision and implied value depends on equity IRR versus market hurdle rate Entry multiple and acquisition premium depends on equity IRR and hurdle rate Base case risk measurement Weighted average cost of capital, multiples, terminal growth Debt capacity, debt terms Senior and subordinated debt financing and exit multiple Traditional risk assessment from equity perspective Sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis of DCF and multiple value Sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis of equity IRR Sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis of equity IRR Tradition risk assessment from debt perspective Break-even analysis to determine ability to refinance and maintain credit rating Break-even analysis to determine at what point cash flow can’t service debt Break-even analysis to determine IRR on senior and subordinated debt Monte Carlo analysis with model Probability distribution of EPS and DCF valuation Probability distribution of equity IRR and probability of DSCR below 1.
Sport picking up trash, dating apps, and car theft defenses.